When we last left Mr. And Mrs. Whale, they were in Simsbury, worrying about the Dartmouth St. upside-down house. It wasnπt renting as quickly or at all and the bank kept asking for some money. They may put it on the market, but I think the last ≥Stay fresh≤ date for the realtorπs list was nine months.

Their situation isnπt as dire as all that. The interest rates are still pretty low. Any sort of adjustment on their payments has taken it down. Further, if the bought the house early enough, they could get that Equity loan for some upkeep and some time. Further, if they can knock the rent down a little, maybe they can slow the financial bleeding.

At the same time, Nantucket has been very good about marketing itself to the country and the world. As the whalers hunted in the Pacific when the Atlantic dried up, so have the realtors gone to the South and the West for clients. Texas, Pennsylvania, California, Florida, all come up here for the summer. As long as the island doesnπt trash itself, that trend is bound to continue. My new neighbor plunked down $750,000 for a house up here and she visits from Atlanta. She ainπt renting it out.

As a matter of fact, the Gulfstreams and Lears come here more and more. The Hamptons are full, the Vineyard is a mess, but Nantucket beckons them. Many of the recent success stories on the island seem to aim directly at this new right whale. When you see the $52 steak on the menu, you know who is here to buy it. Their red ≥Luvack≤ Range Rover is parked outside, with the Nantucket Golf Club sticker on the bumper. The island is moving upscale.

I think that our future holds more of the super-rich and less of the middle class and, as changes go, thatπs not that bad. Itπs better than losing everyone. However, there were lots of upper middle class people coming out here and there will be, by definition less of the super-rich. But, if that change continues to happen, it means some very, very big changes on the island. We go from a pod of CT whales to one Washington 40 barrel bull whale.

One of the changes has already occurred. There is a radical difference in the price of real estate in year round streets as opposed to seasonal streets. I believe both streets have seen slow-downs, but the year round slow down is far worse than the seasonal. And I bet that will continue. In other words, I think that the 2.6 million Medouie creek land is going to go faster than $750,000 house off Somerset. And I think that the 2.6 number will hold up over time better than the $750,000.

Another change would the loss of guest houses. I donπt know any specific numbers, but it seems that the inns and B&Bπs of the past are being marketed, bought and re-habbed by the super-rich. Lyon Street Inn? Woodbox? Cliff House?

But, as that change happens, someone is going to get stiffed. If the national economy doesnπt improve right quick, the Whales of Connecticut wonπt be returning in the Clinton era numbers. Instead, those investment properties and rental properties are going to pop up on the market and stay there, waiting for a miracle.

(Maybe, as the open space dwindles, there might be another Michael Egan out there, buying up a street of houses for his compound.)

(Or maybe there is another developer who will buy up the a bunch of rental stock and hold it, waiting for the market to turn and the whales to return)

(Ugly counterargument: http://www.nantucketislandliving.com/map.php

There are about 11 properties listed as under $800,000 and two of them are about to fall off the Sconset Bluff. Of course, this website is the ≥puppy in the window≤)

(Ugly counter-asrgument 2: I botched the Selectmanπs race predictions, so I am more than a little untrustworthy these days. Crystal ball is dusty)

First, you can expect to hear more from the airport about private planes and their own little terminal. More parking for the private aircraft coming in. The airport is becoming more like the marina.

I think you can expect to see much more pressure to close off the beach. When we charge $8 million for the house in Dionis, they probably didnπt think it would buy them a ringside seat at the Middle School Chug-a-thon.

I think you are going see more stores that aim at the middle class, like A.K.πs struggle, while others that aim for the top shelf, like Fahey or The Pearl doing well.

I think that the enrollment at the schools will continue to fall, but that the private schools on-island will thrive.

I think prices for everything will increase faster than inflation.

But mostly, I think that the Whales are going to be stuck, holding the bag. Someone is going to have

Noone to buy their house?

Other areas of the country.

Conglomerate owners. Someone who owns ten or twenty rental houses.

Big Moneyä.

Nantucket Golf

Pearl

Gulfstreams

Costs go up for everythingä

Huge money, their employees, and the whales.

So how do we tax this? How do we g